Media
The news coverage of the war has been part of the battle. Until recently Ukraine had a very strong narrative story. They appear to be very media savvy. Zalensky was previously an actor and has combined many theatrical elements into his leadership, such as wearing military green colors. The loss of a number of cities has damaged trust however and people now see that they are distorting the reality of the situation.
The news in Russia seems to be similarly controlled. The media in Russia would be foolish to report anything that is not supportive of the war. A quick search of Russian journalists who have been assassinated shows why.
Western countries have limited their citizens’ access to Russian news sites. The media battle is also being strongly fought on social media. Footage of the destruction of the opposing military is widely shared and gives optimism and pessimism based on which side is being injured. The social media material is actually very shocking. It will be hard to make amends after this war ends.
Air Drones
Drones have proven to be an essential element to modern day warfare. They are terrifying and effective against any soldiers outside of armored vehicles within range on the front line. There are many videos of armored vehicles getting attacked by quadcopter drones but I am not sure how many are actually being destroyed. I imagine the warheads are too small for armored vehicles and they lose signal close to the ground, therefore missing the target. In any case they are invaluable for observation of the battle field.
Early in the war Ukraine and Russia both had success with Turkish and Iranian long distance drones such as the Bayraktar and Shahed 129. They are not as effective anymore and are kept away from air defenses.
Kamakazi drones such as the Iranian Shahed 136 are still being used very effectively against Ukrainian targets, especially vehicles and air defenses.
Drone Boats
Ukrainian Magura sea drones have claimed a number of Russian ships and attacked Russian bridges. Costing just $250,000 and with a 800 km range they can swarm large warships and are very hard to intercept.
Short range missiles.
The Iskander missile launcher has been very effective at accurately striking deep within Ukraine. It has a 500km range, carries cluster, incendiary and high explosive warheads and is a terrifying weapon. They have been used to incapacitate companies on training exercises and to attack Ukrainian leadership when meeting. The missiles’ altitude and trajectory makes them very hard to intercept. The Iskander can also launch cruise missiles.
The Ukrainians have been using the US Himars missile systems. It is a highly mobile weapon with a range of 300km and has been used very effectively to target Iskanders, air defenses and artillery positions.
Artillery
Artillery has been extremely important in moving the front line or repelling attacks. The enormous quantities of shells required took both sides by surprise. Russia was very agile in getting the machines required to produce the artillery from China. Drones have been effective in spotting for the artillery.
Cruise missiles
The Ukrainians have been using English Storm Shadow and cruise missiles very effectively. They fly under the radar and have been used to attack military headquarters and air defenses within 250kms. They have also been using Ukrainian R360 Neptune cruise missiles with a range of 200km to sink Russian ships that venture too close.
Hypersonic missiles
The Russians have developed an effective hypersonic missile, the Kinzhal. Travelling up to Mach 10, it can be air launched, has a range of 480 km and can carry nuclear and conventional weapons. They have been used against Ukraine repeatedly and have successfully been intercepted. The intercepted missiles apparently did not travel at the claimed Mach 10, instead the missiles may only travel Mach 3.6, making them susceptible to air defenses.
Glide Bombs
The weapon that has put Russia on a path the winning the war is the glide bomb. They have converted standard unguided FAB bombs into guided and made them capable of gliding up to 70km to their targets. This puts the bomber beyond the range of air defenses while enabling them to drop a lot of high explosive on Ukrainian positions. They will probably soon take Kharkiv with the use of this bomb.
Conclusion
The current state of the war and use of the glide bomb has put Russia on a pathway to victory, however they would be wise not to become hubristic. Their success is reliant on air control and I expect this can be challenged with more western support. Unfortunately for Russia the current political establishment in the West is not to their advantage. Until there is a change of government in the US, I believe the West will continue fighting.